Make price prediction using trained model Args: recent_data: Recent historical data (at least sequence_length ro

Analyze freeze forecast and generate crop damage prediction Args: forecast_data: Weather forecast from NOAA

Graceful shutdown

Calculate market liquidity metrics Returns: Comprehensive liquidity analysis

Fallback to NOAA GFS model data when INMET is unavailable. GFS provides global coverage including Brazil with 0.25deg resolution.

Calculate performance metrics Args: days: Calculate for last N days (None = all time) Retur

Establish database connection

Weekly USDA Crop Progress report. Released every Monday during growing season. Good/Excellent % is the single most market-mov

Fit GARCH(1,1) model to returns Args: returns: Returns series initial_params: Initial parameter gues

NOAA forecast for a grain production state centroid

Fetch weekly USDA Crop Progress ratings. Good/Excellent % is the most-watched ag data point each Monday. Drop of 5+ points we

Main monitoring loop - check all counties for weather threats

Normalize sequences and targets Args: sequences: Input sequences targets: Target values

Convert time series data into sequences for LSTM Args: data: DataFrame with features and target targ

Weight drought risks by production share

Weight frost risks by production share

Adjust signal confidence based on cross-commodity correlations. If Coffee AND Cocoa both show LONG signals, it suggests a shared

Assess overall portfolio risk across all positions. Prevents over-concentration in correlated weather events.

Check if confidence scores are well-calibrated E.g., if AI says 80% confident, are 80% of those predictions accurate?

Calculate maximum drawdown percentage

Calculate aggregate metrics

Create high-priority alert for significant predictions

Display backtest results

Extract trading signals from each commodity's data

Find historical frost events with similar temperature profiles

Find similar historical events

Find historical freeze events with similar conditions

Format human-readable alert message

Generate AI prediction and store in database

Generate ranked trade recommendations with position sizing. Applies risk management rules from config.

Load historical weather events database

Load trade history from database

Load distribution wallet from environment

Load wallet from environment variable

Record airdrop in database for transparency

Record buyback in database for transparency

Save trades to database

Send alert via configured channels In production: email, SMS, Slack, webhook

Analyze hurricane threat and predict crop impact

Drought assessment for Brazil Center-South sugarcane

Corn yield stress assessment. Critical periods: - Pollination (July): Heat > 95F or drought = yield loss - Grain fill (Aug):

Assess drought risk - critical during flowering (Oct-Dec) and fruit development (Jan-Mar). El Nino years increase risk significantly.

Drought assessment for cocoa. Cocoa requires 1200-2500mm annual rainfall. Critical periods: flowering (Oct-Nov) and pod devel

Assess crop damage risk from freeze event Based on: - Temperature thresholds (28°F = critical, 26°F = severe)

Assess frost risk for a Brazilian coffee region. Frost below 0C causes leaf damage; below -2C causes branch kill; below -4C c

Harmattan: hot, dry, dusty wind from Sahara (Nov-Feb). Causes: pod dehydration, flower drop, reduced pod set. Severe Harmatta

India monsoon assessment. June-September rainfall vs normal. IMD defines: >110% = excess, 90-110% = normal, 75-90% = deficient,

Wheat risk assessment. HRW wheat: winterkill risk (Jan-Feb), drought at heading (Apr-May), heat at grain fill (May-Jun).

Calculate 50% of monthly profits for buyback Args: monthly_profits_usdc: Total monthly trading profits in USDC

Garman-Klass volatility estimator Most efficient estimator using OHLC data Args: open_prices: Opening pr

Calculate USDT allocation for each holder based on token percentage Args: total_usdt: Total USDT to distribute

Calculate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI = (NIR - Red) / (NIR + Red) Values: 0.8-1.0:

Calculate order flow imbalance over recent period Args: window_minutes: Time window for calculation

Parkinson volatility estimator (uses high-low range) More efficient than close-to-close for range data Args:

Calculate 50% of quarterly profits for USDT airdrop Args: quarterly_profits_usdc: Total quarterly trading profit

Calculate realized volatility from returns Args: returns: Array of returns window: Rolling window si

Calculate rolling correlation between two series Args: series1: First time series series2: Second ti

Calculate how current grove health affects vulnerability Returns multiplier (1.0 = normal, >1.0 = more vulnerable)

Calculate Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) NDWI = (NIR - SWIR) / (NIR + SWIR) High values: High veg

Classify current ENSO phase from ONI value

Collect all sugar production region data

Create all necessary tables

Demo: Generate AI prediction using Claude Sonnet 4

Run complete demo workflow

Demo: Store data in database

Demo: Show how performance is tracked

Demo: Collect real weather data from NOAA

Calculate percentage of grove area with healthy canopy Args: ndvi: NDVI array threshold: Minimum NDV

Detect current volatility regime Args: current_volatility: Current volatility level historical_volat

Close database connection

Combine multiple volatility models for robust forecast Args: returns: Returns series high_prices: Hi

Estimate price impact of a trade Args: order_size: Size of hypothetical order direction: 'buy' or 's

Compare prediction to actual outcome

EWMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) volatility Args: returns: Returns series lambda_param:

Execute quarterly USDT airdrop to all holders Args: total_usdt: Total USDT to distribute dry_run: If

Execute token buyback and burn Args: usdc_amount: Amount of USDC to use for buyback dry_run: If True

Generate human-readable explanation of prediction

Extract comprehensive feature set for prediction Args: weather_data: Current and forecasted weather conditions

CONAB (Brazil's national supply agency) monthly coffee crop estimates. CONAB revisions often move KC 2-5% on release day.

ICCO quarterly supply/demand data for cocoa. Deficit/surplus estimate is the primary CC price driver. 2023-24 saw record defi

Fetch latest USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates). Published monthly. Contains S&D estimates for all grain and

Forecast volatility using fitted GARCH model Args: last_return: Most recent return last_variance: Mo

Forecast price impact from supply disruption Args: supply_disruption_pct: Expected supply reduction (0.10 = 10%)

Generate comprehensive monthly report Args: year: Year (e.g., 2026) month: Month (1-12)

Generate comprehensive performance metrics

Generate AI prediction based on simulated forecast

Generate formatted risk report

Generate specific trading recommendation Returns entry, exit, stop loss levels

GFS forecast for Sao Paulo sugarcane belt

Generate commodity trading signals based on ENSO phase. These are medium-term (3-6 month) directional biases.

Fetch ENSO probability forecast from IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society). 9-month ahead probabilities.

Calculate overall execution quality score (0-100) Higher = better execution environment Returns: Executi

Fetch from Ghana Meteorological Agency. Falls back to NOAA GFS for Ivory Coast where direct API unavailable.

Find historical events similar to current conditions

Fetch forecast from INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) Brazil's national meteorological service

Fetch MODIS MOD13Q1 NDVI — free, 250m, 16-day composite. Primary free satellite layer for vegetation health monitoring.

Fetch MODIS NDVI data for canopy health assessment. NDVI below 0.4 indicates significant vegetation stress. Used as leading i

Calculate next scheduled distribution date

Fetch current ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) from NOAA CPC. This is the definitive ENSO indicator.