Function createOrder

core/src/exchanges/metaculus/createOrder.ts:290–409

(
    params: CreateOrderParams,
    ctx: CreateOrderContext,
)

 * @throws {ValidationError} If the outcomeId format is unrecognizable.
 */
export async function createOrder(
    params: CreateOrderParams,
    ctx: CreateOrderContext,
): Promise<Order> {
    try {
        // 1. Validate auth
        const headers = ctx.getAuthHeaders();
        if (!headers.Authorization) {
            throw new AuthenticationError(
                'Metaculus forecast submission requires authentication. '
                + 'Pass { apiToken: "..." } when constructing MetaculusExchange.',
                "Metaculus",
            );
        }

        // 2. Parse outcomeId to determine question type
        const parsed = parseOutcomeId(params.outcomeId);

        // 3. Continuous questions can't be traded via createOrder
        if (parsed.type === "continuous") {
            throw new InvalidOrder(
                "Continuous/numeric/date questions cannot be traded via createOrder. "
                + "These require a 201-point CDF which cannot be expressed as a single price. "
                + "Use the Metaculus API directly for continuous forecasts.",
                "Metaculus",
            );
        }

        // 4. Validate price
        const probability = validateProbability(params.price);

        // 5. Log warnings for params that don't apply to Metaculus
        if (params.side && params.side !== "buy") {
            logger.warn(
                `Metaculus: Ignoring side="${params.side}" -- Metaculus forecasts are probability submissions, not buy/sell. `
                + "Set the probability via the `price` parameter instead.",
            );
        }
        if (params.type && params.type !== "market") {
            logger.warn(
                `Metaculus: Ignoring type="${params.type}" -- Metaculus forecasts execute instantly (no limit orders).`,
            );
        }

        // 6. Build the forecast payload
        let payload: any[];

        if (parsed.type === "binary") {
            payload = [{ question: parsed.questionId, probability_yes: probability }];
        } else {
            // Multiple-choice: need current probabilities to redistribute
            if (!ctx.fetchOutcomes) {
                throw new InvalidOrder(
                    "Multiple-choice forecast requires market outcome data but fetchOutcomes is not available.",
                    "Metaculus",
                );
            }