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hub / github.com/facebook/prophet / predict_uncertainty

Method predict_uncertainty

python/prophet/forecaster.py:1434–1458  ·  view source on GitHub ↗

Prediction intervals for yhat and trend. Parameters ---------- df: Prediction dataframe. vectorized: Whether to use a vectorized method for generating future draws. Returns ------- Dataframe with uncertainty intervals.

(self, df: pd.DataFrame, vectorized: bool)

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1432 return pd.DataFrame(data)
1433
1434 def predict_uncertainty(self, df: pd.DataFrame, vectorized: bool) -> pd.DataFrame:
1435 """Prediction intervals for yhat and trend.
1436
1437 Parameters
1438 ----------
1439 df: Prediction dataframe.
1440 vectorized: Whether to use a vectorized method for generating future draws.
1441
1442 Returns
1443 -------
1444 Dataframe with uncertainty intervals.
1445 """
1446 sim_values = self.sample_posterior_predictive(df, vectorized)
1447
1448 lower_p = 100 * (1.0 - self.interval_width) / 2
1449 upper_p = 100 * (1.0 + self.interval_width) / 2
1450
1451 series = {}
1452 for key in ['yhat', 'trend']:
1453 series['{}_lower'.format(key)] = self.percentile(
1454 sim_values[key], lower_p, axis=1)
1455 series['{}_upper'.format(key)] = self.percentile(
1456 sim_values[key], upper_p, axis=1)
1457
1458 return pd.DataFrame(series)
1459
1460 def sample_posterior_predictive(self, df: pd.DataFrame, vectorized: bool) -> Dict[str, np.ndarray]:
1461 """Prophet posterior predictive samples.

Callers 1

predictMethod · 0.95

Calls 2

percentileMethod · 0.95

Tested by

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