Polymarket-Kalshi Arbitrage Bot 🦀

A high-performance Rust trading bot implementing advanced arbitrage strategies across Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This is not a complete, production-ready codebase. This project is continuously being improved and developed.

• ⚠️ Do not use directly in production without thorough testing and review
• 🔧 Code is subject to change - APIs, logic, and structure may be updated
• 🐛 May contain bugs or incomplete features - use at your own risk
• 📚 Intended for educational/research purposes - adapt and test before deploying

Use this code as a reference or starting point, not as a ready-to-deploy solution.

Features

Implemented Trading Logic

✅ Polymarket Trading Logic - Full implementation of Polymarket's blockchain-based trading system

• Polygon network integration with ethers-rs
• USDC balance management
• Conditional token contract interactions
• Order placement and execution

✅ Cross-Platform Arbitrage - Advanced event matching and price discrepancy detection

• Intelligent event matching using similarity algorithms
• Real-time price monitoring across platforms
• Simultaneous trade execution between Polymarket (Polygon) and Kalshi

✅ Gabagool Strategy - Single-platform hedged arbitrage on Polymarket

• Detects YES/NO price imbalances on Polymarket
• Locks in profit by buying both sides when combined cost < $1.00
• Runs simultaneously with cross-platform arbitrage

✅ Position Management - Comprehensive tracking and settlement system

• Real-time position monitoring
• Automatic settlement checking
• Profit/loss calculation
• Multi-platform balance tracking

✅ API Integration - Production-ready clients for both platforms

• Polymarket GraphQL/CLOB API
• Kalshi REST API with RSA-PSS authentication
• Error handling and retry mechanisms

✅ Kalshi monitoring (TypeScript-aligned) - Config, best bid/ask, dry run, monitor logging

• Centralized config (KALSHI_DEMO, KALSHI_BASE_PATH, PEM from file or env)
• Best bid/ask via GET /markets/{ticker} and /markets/{ticker}/orderbook
• Dry run: DRY_RUN=true or KALSHI_DRY_RUN=true (no real orders)
• Monitor logger: 15m slot log files logs/monitor_{YYYY-MM-DD}_{HH}-{00|15|30|45}.log

For Rust crates and API references for Kalshi and Polymarket, see docs/RUST_APIS.md.

Architecture

src/
├── main.rs                  # Entry point & dual-strategy orchestration
├── lib.rs                   # Module exports
├── config.rs                # Kalshi config (demo/prod, PEM, dry run)
├── event.rs                 # Event data structures (MarketPrices with yes_ask/no_ask)
├── event_matcher.rs         # Advanced event matching algorithms
├── arbitrage_detector.rs    # Cross-platform arbitrage detection
├── gabagool_executor.rs     # Gabagool trade execution
├── bot.rs                   # Bot orchestration & strategy execution
├── clients.rs               # Polymarket & Kalshi API clients (get_market, orderbook)
├── trade_executor.rs        # Cross-platform trade execution
├── position_tracker.rs      # Position tracking & management
├── settlement_checker.rs    # Automated settlement processing
├── monitor_logger.rs         # 15m slot log files (TypeScript-aligned)
└── polymarket_blockchain.rs # Polygon blockchain integration

Status

🚧 Work in Progress - This bot is actively being developed and improved. Features may be incomplete or change.

Setup

Note: This setup is for development/testing only. Ensure you understand the code before running with real funds.

1. Install Rust:

bash curl --proto '=https' --tlsv1.2 -sSf https://sh.rustup.rs | sh

1. Configure .env (create from .env.example):
2. Polymarket: POLYGON_RPC_URL, POLYMARKET_WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
3. Kalshi: KALSHI_API_ID, KALSHI_RSA_PRIVATE_KEY (or KALSHI_PRIVATE_KEY_PATH to a PEM file)
4. Kalshi optional: KALSHI_DEMO=true, KALSHI_BASE_PATH, DRY_RUN=true / KALSHI_DRY_RUN=true

5. 15m crypto (optional): POLYMARKET_USE_GAMMA=1, POLYMARKET_TAG_SLUG=crypto, KALSHI_SERIES_TICKER, COIN_FILTER=btc|eth|sol

6. Build & Run (for testing/development): bash cargo build --release cargo run --release

7. Kalshi price monitor (optional, TypeScript-aligned): bash cargo run --release --bin monitor Polls best YES/NO ask for a Kalshi market and logs to console and to logs/monitor_{YYYY-MM-DD}_{HH}-{00|15|30|45}.log.
   Env: KALSHI_MONITOR_INTERVAL_MS (default 2000), KALSHI_MONITOR_TICKER (optional; else first open KXBTC15M market).
   Ctrl+C to stop.

Platforms

Note:

• Polymarket: This bot interacts via Polygon (on-chain trading with USDC).
• Kalshi: Kalshi is on-chain (tokenized event contracts on Solana, real-time data via Pyth on 100+ chains). This bot uses Kalshi’s REST API only (trading-api.kalshi.com) for trading, not their Solana/on-chain layer.
• Cross-platform arbitrage is performed between these two platforms only.

Trading Strategies

1. Cross-Platform Arbitrage (Polymarket ↔ Kalshi)
2. Matches identical events across platforms
3. Detects price discrepancies

4. Executes simultaneous trades to lock in profit

5. Gabagool Strategy (Polymarket only)

6. Single-platform hedged arbitrage
7. Buys both YES and NO when combined cost < $1.00
8. Guarantees profit regardless of outcome

Both strategies run simultaneously in parallel for maximum opportunity detection.

Technical Highlights

• Rust Performance - Zero-cost abstractions and async/await for maximum efficiency
• Modular Design - Clean separation of concerns, easy to extend
• Error Handling - Robust error management with proper propagation
• Concurrent Execution - Parallel strategy execution using tokio
• Type Safety - Strong typing throughout for reliability
• Dual Strategy Monitoring - Simultaneous cross-platform and single-platform arbitrage

Contributing

This project is continuously improving. Contributions, suggestions, and bug reports are welcome!