Function nll

codeclash/analysis/bootstrap/analyze_round_correlations.py:89–94

(theta: np.ndarray)

    N = valid_mask.sum()

    def nll(theta: np.ndarray) -> float:
        game, mu = unpack(theta)
        res = ar_residuals_logit(scores, game, mu)
        e = res[valid_mask]
        sigma2 = (e @ e) / N
        return 0.5 * N * np.log(sigma2)

    theta0 = pack(game0, mu0)
    lower_game = np.full(p, -0.999)